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The Long Investor - $BKNG - WATCHLIST -
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$BKNG is at $148 and the weekly chart is sitting right in our Buy Zone, with Wave C looking close to done after a rough few months.
$BKNG down about -30% this year and price has just slipped under the 200 WMA, which is the first time in years the market has handed us that.
The Wave C target is the 0.5 Fib at $139, with the 0.618 Fib at $117 as the deeper level if the fear gets worse.
So why the weakness? September was the worst month since 2022 with an -18% drop, as the market started to worry that AI agents from $GOOG and $META could cut out the booking sites.
Add in oil above $100, the Fed raising rates for the first time in three years, an EU court blocking a deal and softer guidance for next quarter, and it all piled in together.
Now look at what is actually happening in the business. Revenue is still growing, earnings are still beating, free cash flow was $3.6B last quarter and the share count is down over -5% in a year thanks to the buybacks.
On the numbers the forward PE is about 13x against a ten year median of around 23x, so for me this is a quality compounder trading at a discount.
The Street still sees it that way, with 37 analysts averaging a target near $231, which is about 56% above here, and not a single Sell rating.
Earnings land tomorrow after the close, with Q4 guidance and the AI booking numbers the big things to watch.
Bulls want to see us reclaim the 0.38 Fib at $162 and the 200 WMA which is a confluence level, which opens the way back to the blue line at $233, our Bull Case.
Above that, the targets are the 1 Fib at $330 and the 1.618 Fib at $447
I like being greedy for support confirmation here, so we let earnings come and then make a decision but the price looks attractive here in the buy zone for a starter position.
$BKNG is at $148 and the weekly chart is sitting right in our Buy Zone, with Wave C looking close to done after a rough few months.
$BKNG down about -30% this year and price has just slipped under the 200 WMA, which is the first time in years the market has handed us that.
The Wave C target is the 0.5 Fib at $139, with the 0.618 Fib at $117 as the deeper level if the fear gets worse.
So why the weakness? September was the worst month since 2022 with an -18% drop, as the market started to worry that AI agents from $GOOG and $META could cut out the booking sites.
Add in oil above $100, the Fed raising rates for the first time in three years, an EU court blocking a deal and softer guidance for next quarter, and it all piled in together.
Now look at what is actually happening in the business. Revenue is still growing, earnings are still beating, free cash flow was $3.6B last quarter and the share count is down over -5% in a year thanks to the buybacks.
On the numbers the forward PE is about 13x against a ten year median of around 23x, so for me this is a quality compounder trading at a discount.
The Street still sees it that way, with 37 analysts averaging a target near $231, which is about 56% above here, and not a single Sell rating.
Earnings land tomorrow after the close, with Q4 guidance and the AI booking numbers the big things to watch.
Bulls want to see us reclaim the 0.38 Fib at $162 and the 200 WMA which is a confluence level, which opens the way back to the blue line at $233, our Bull Case.
Above that, the targets are the 1 Fib at $330 and the 1.618 Fib at $447
I like being greedy for support confirmation here, so we let earnings come and then make a decision but the price looks attractive here in the buy zone for a starter position.
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