Matt - VIP TOTD x9 + ANALYSIS (14th September)
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TIP OF THE DAY - Portugal Primeira Liga - 14th September [20:45]
Braga & Under 4.5 Goals
Odds of 1.70
Braga are hot favourites to win at home here against Estoril and it's fair to see why. They have won 70% of the H2H meetings with Estoril and Estoril have only managed to score 2 goals in their opening 5 games picking up just 2 points. Braga on the other hand have managed so far a respectable 7 points from 4 games and a win here takes them up to averaging 2 points a game! Their games are hardly blowouts though with an average of around 2 goals a game, I expect this to end 2-0 to Braga, a comfortable win at home.
Whilst therefore under 3.5 goals is appealing (2.15 odds), this selection bumps up the winning odds nicely but has that added security should Braga click into gear or Estoril get an elusive goal.
TIP OF THE DAY #2 - Denmark Superligaen - 14th September [18:00]
Midtjylland to Win
Odds of 1.71
Midtjylland need to win this game in order to climb to second in the league and keep the pace with Copenhagen in the early stages of this season. Although Brondby are a decent team, they tend to struggle away from home when priced as underdogs, the last instance of this was a 3-1 loss away to Nordsjaelland. Brondby are also coming off of a disappointing 3-0 loss at home against Randers (a team that Midtjylland have already beaten to nil this season) whereas Midtjylland dominated their last game with a 7-0 win in Round 3 of the cup.
For me, it was a toss up between a win here for the home side or BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals (1.83) but given that a 2-0 win is a very possible result here I opted for the home win. It's also not like Midtjylland have any European football to contend with at this moment in time as they find themselves in the Conference League which doesn't kick off until October! All focus will be on this match.
TIP OF THE DAY #3 - Türkiye Super Lig - 14th September [18:00]
Fenerbache & Over 1.5 Goals
Odds of 1.72
Fenerbache LOVE playing Gaziantep. They have won 16 out of 18 meetings between the two sides including ALL of the last 12! 11 of those 12 wins also featured at LEAST two goals in the game so I think it's worth adding the over 1.5 goals to bump up the winning odds given that I think a 1-0 win is not as likely!
Their last 6 H2Hs have ended with an aggregate scoreline of 22-4 to Fenerbache so it's safe to say they enjoy this fixture. The last two times Gaziantep have played at home as underdogs they have lost, a 2-1 loss to Rizespor and a 2-1 loss to Basaksehir, I'd be surprised at anything but an away win in this game.
TIP OF THE DAY #4 - Spain La Liga - 14th September [20:00]
Villarreal/Real Betis - BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals
Odds of 1.80
Whilst I think these two teams are very similarly matched in terms of quality, the two are having contrasting starts to the season! Betis are picking up some great results (with only a shock loss against Levante in there) including a smash and grab win against Real Madrid. Whereas Villarreal whilst they sit near the top of the league on xg/chances created they can't seem to make those chances count nor keep the ball out the back of the net!
Regardless, this poor run of Villarreal's won't last and I could even see them picking up a win here (they are 1.95 favourites!) so I think it's very likely they get on the scoresheet again at home. Given their recent form I have to say that "Real Betis Draw No Bet (2.62 Odds)" was a consideration of mine.
Whatever performance we get from either team I expect goals, much like many of their recent meetings with 5 of the last 6 seeing BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals land!
HIGH ODDS TIP OF THE DAY - Iceland Premier League - 14th September [20:15]
Vikingur Reykjavik -1 & Over 3.5 Goals
Odds of 2.05
It's the start of the Championship round in the Iceland Premier League with a spot in the Champions League (Qualifiers) up for grabs! Vikingur can't afford to be complacent with the 5 games remaining as they don't have top spot sealed with only a 6 point league over 2nd place. This is (in theory) their best chance to get 3 points on the board as they face 6th place (bottom of the Championship) and newly promoted last season Keflavik.
I expect Vikingur to put on a show here in a very high scoring game. Both of their meetings in the regular season saw this tip land with Vikingur winning 3-1 away from home and 5-1 in their most recent meeting at home!
HIGH ODDS TIP OF THE DAY #2 - Republic of Ireland Premier Division - 14th September [19:45
Waterford FC/Derry City - BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals
Odds of 2.05
These two LOVE a high scoring H2H. The last 7 meetings have ALL seen BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals land with a total of 34 goals in those games averaging nearly 5 a game! Both teams are scoring and conceding over a goal a game this season and Derry in particular have been enjoying a run of very high scoring games lately with 21 goals landing in their last 4 games (including just a hard fought 1-0 win over Shelbourne)!
I was surprised to see this valued at above evens so couldn't look past it given the likelihood we see both teams score. At that point we just need either of the two teams to add a third to the tally!
MEGA ODDS TIP OF THE DAY - Italy Serie A - 14th September [19:45]
Inter Milan & BTTS (With Early Payout)
Odds of 2.75
This is a GREAT way to increase the measly odds (1.25) of an Inter win. Whilst it's obviously expected that Inter win at home given their strength and good form (they can consider themselves unlucky to not get at least a point against Real Madrid) I think there is value in adding an Udinese goal. Udinese have been in fine form this season losing only to high fliers Lazio but still scoring in every single game this season.
It's also expected for any team travelling to Inter that Milan will find the back of the net, so every team's hope of picking up anything from the game relies on scoring a goal as opposed to perhaps parking the bus as an approach. The early payout option also leans into the "consolation goal" should Inter pull ahead early and out of sight, it's possible that a 2nd half consolation goal comes in for Udinese as Inter switch off for a moment.
MEGA ODDS TIP OF THE DAY #2 - Italy Serie A - 14th September [17:30]
Roma & BTTS (With Early Payout)
Odds of 3.25
Roma have enjoyed travelling to Torino in recent years, winning 4 of their last 5 outings! Whilst I think Roma are in excellent form here, I'm not so sure they come away from this game totally unscathed. Torino have scored in every single one of their league games this season, losing twice and winning once. I think there is a tremendous amount of value in backing the in form Roma to win but also concede a goal.
If you select Roma to win with the early payout then add the BTTS option separately then this tip will come in should Roma take a 2 goal lead even if they don't end up winning the game! My score prediction for this game would be a 2-1 win to Roma, the same scoreline that has landed in all 3 of Torino's league games so far this season as well as Roma's last league win against Atalanta!
MEGA ODDS TIP OF THE DAY #3 - England Premier League - 14th September [20:00]
Leeds/Newcastle - Draw
Odds of 3.50
This gam screams a 1-1 Draw to me. I did consider BTTS & Under 3.5 Goals (Odds of 3.00) to allow for a possible 2-1 either way but at these (higher) odds I am going to spring for a draw! I do think Newcastle are a slightly better team and can expect to finish higher in the league but it's a tough task to win away at Elland Road so I think there is a lot of value in the points being shared today, whether that's an exciting 2-2, more expected 1-1 or even a drab 0-0.
Both teams are unbeaten this season and have drawn 2 of their 3 opening games so I'm happy to spring for these odds with a wicked return!
TIP OF THE DAY - Portugal Primeira Liga - 14th September [20:45]
Braga & Under 4.5 Goals
Odds of 1.70
Braga are hot favourites to win at home here against Estoril and it's fair to see why. They have won 70% of the H2H meetings with Estoril and Estoril have only managed to score 2 goals in their opening 5 games picking up just 2 points. Braga on the other hand have managed so far a respectable 7 points from 4 games and a win here takes them up to averaging 2 points a game! Their games are hardly blowouts though with an average of around 2 goals a game, I expect this to end 2-0 to Braga, a comfortable win at home.
Whilst therefore under 3.5 goals is appealing (2.15 odds), this selection bumps up the winning odds nicely but has that added security should Braga click into gear or Estoril get an elusive goal.
TIP OF THE DAY #2 - Denmark Superligaen - 14th September [18:00]
Midtjylland to Win
Odds of 1.71
Midtjylland need to win this game in order to climb to second in the league and keep the pace with Copenhagen in the early stages of this season. Although Brondby are a decent team, they tend to struggle away from home when priced as underdogs, the last instance of this was a 3-1 loss away to Nordsjaelland. Brondby are also coming off of a disappointing 3-0 loss at home against Randers (a team that Midtjylland have already beaten to nil this season) whereas Midtjylland dominated their last game with a 7-0 win in Round 3 of the cup.
For me, it was a toss up between a win here for the home side or BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals (1.83) but given that a 2-0 win is a very possible result here I opted for the home win. It's also not like Midtjylland have any European football to contend with at this moment in time as they find themselves in the Conference League which doesn't kick off until October! All focus will be on this match.
TIP OF THE DAY #3 - Türkiye Super Lig - 14th September [18:00]
Fenerbache & Over 1.5 Goals
Odds of 1.72
Fenerbache LOVE playing Gaziantep. They have won 16 out of 18 meetings between the two sides including ALL of the last 12! 11 of those 12 wins also featured at LEAST two goals in the game so I think it's worth adding the over 1.5 goals to bump up the winning odds given that I think a 1-0 win is not as likely!
Their last 6 H2Hs have ended with an aggregate scoreline of 22-4 to Fenerbache so it's safe to say they enjoy this fixture. The last two times Gaziantep have played at home as underdogs they have lost, a 2-1 loss to Rizespor and a 2-1 loss to Basaksehir, I'd be surprised at anything but an away win in this game.
TIP OF THE DAY #4 - Spain La Liga - 14th September [20:00]
Villarreal/Real Betis - BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals
Odds of 1.80
Whilst I think these two teams are very similarly matched in terms of quality, the two are having contrasting starts to the season! Betis are picking up some great results (with only a shock loss against Levante in there) including a smash and grab win against Real Madrid. Whereas Villarreal whilst they sit near the top of the league on xg/chances created they can't seem to make those chances count nor keep the ball out the back of the net!
Regardless, this poor run of Villarreal's won't last and I could even see them picking up a win here (they are 1.95 favourites!) so I think it's very likely they get on the scoresheet again at home. Given their recent form I have to say that "Real Betis Draw No Bet (2.62 Odds)" was a consideration of mine.
Whatever performance we get from either team I expect goals, much like many of their recent meetings with 5 of the last 6 seeing BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals land!
HIGH ODDS TIP OF THE DAY - Iceland Premier League - 14th September [20:15]
Vikingur Reykjavik -1 & Over 3.5 Goals
Odds of 2.05
It's the start of the Championship round in the Iceland Premier League with a spot in the Champions League (Qualifiers) up for grabs! Vikingur can't afford to be complacent with the 5 games remaining as they don't have top spot sealed with only a 6 point league over 2nd place. This is (in theory) their best chance to get 3 points on the board as they face 6th place (bottom of the Championship) and newly promoted last season Keflavik.
I expect Vikingur to put on a show here in a very high scoring game. Both of their meetings in the regular season saw this tip land with Vikingur winning 3-1 away from home and 5-1 in their most recent meeting at home!
HIGH ODDS TIP OF THE DAY #2 - Republic of Ireland Premier Division - 14th September [19:45
Waterford FC/Derry City - BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals
Odds of 2.05
These two LOVE a high scoring H2H. The last 7 meetings have ALL seen BTTS & Over 2.5 Goals land with a total of 34 goals in those games averaging nearly 5 a game! Both teams are scoring and conceding over a goal a game this season and Derry in particular have been enjoying a run of very high scoring games lately with 21 goals landing in their last 4 games (including just a hard fought 1-0 win over Shelbourne)!
I was surprised to see this valued at above evens so couldn't look past it given the likelihood we see both teams score. At that point we just need either of the two teams to add a third to the tally!
MEGA ODDS TIP OF THE DAY - Italy Serie A - 14th September [19:45]
Inter Milan & BTTS (With Early Payout)
Odds of 2.75
This is a GREAT way to increase the measly odds (1.25) of an Inter win. Whilst it's obviously expected that Inter win at home given their strength and good form (they can consider themselves unlucky to not get at least a point against Real Madrid) I think there is value in adding an Udinese goal. Udinese have been in fine form this season losing only to high fliers Lazio but still scoring in every single game this season.
It's also expected for any team travelling to Inter that Milan will find the back of the net, so every team's hope of picking up anything from the game relies on scoring a goal as opposed to perhaps parking the bus as an approach. The early payout option also leans into the "consolation goal" should Inter pull ahead early and out of sight, it's possible that a 2nd half consolation goal comes in for Udinese as Inter switch off for a moment.
MEGA ODDS TIP OF THE DAY #2 - Italy Serie A - 14th September [17:30]
Roma & BTTS (With Early Payout)
Odds of 3.25
Roma have enjoyed travelling to Torino in recent years, winning 4 of their last 5 outings! Whilst I think Roma are in excellent form here, I'm not so sure they come away from this game totally unscathed. Torino have scored in every single one of their league games this season, losing twice and winning once. I think there is a tremendous amount of value in backing the in form Roma to win but also concede a goal.
If you select Roma to win with the early payout then add the BTTS option separately then this tip will come in should Roma take a 2 goal lead even if they don't end up winning the game! My score prediction for this game would be a 2-1 win to Roma, the same scoreline that has landed in all 3 of Torino's league games so far this season as well as Roma's last league win against Atalanta!
MEGA ODDS TIP OF THE DAY #3 - England Premier League - 14th September [20:00]
Leeds/Newcastle - Draw
Odds of 3.50
This gam screams a 1-1 Draw to me. I did consider BTTS & Under 3.5 Goals (Odds of 3.00) to allow for a possible 2-1 either way but at these (higher) odds I am going to spring for a draw! I do think Newcastle are a slightly better team and can expect to finish higher in the league but it's a tough task to win away at Elland Road so I think there is a lot of value in the points being shared today, whether that's an exciting 2-2, more expected 1-1 or even a drab 0-0.
Both teams are unbeaten this season and have drawn 2 of their 3 opening games so I'm happy to spring for these odds with a wicked return!
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