Jays Wintry Mix - Big Weekend Changes?

Yesterday, I posted about the chance of a big weekend storm(mostly sunday). But i also showed the ensembles that showed a huge spread/variation. We will be using the ensembles a lot this winter. I have some new changes that i want to make this winter. For example....lets say i post the 12z Euro 7 days out and it shows a big snowstorm. Well I am also going to grade the ensemble support for it just so I don't get excited and then mistakenly get you excited. Its nice to see a snow map but its nicer when we have ensemble support. So with that being said...lets dig in to this weekend.

The trend today is flatter, more progressive and weaker with the weekend storm system and with that there has been a noticeable south shift. To the point where I am starting to wonder if we get any substantial rain on Sunday or even any rain period.

Here is the 18z EURO AI. Just came out. This would be for Sunday at 8:00am

Here was the 6z EURO AI from this morning showing a soaker. That is a huge shift

The ensembles yesterday were hinting at a south /flatter shift---but it didnt show up on the operational models till this afternoon.

here is the 18z GFS from a few hours ago.

Here was the 6z GFS this morning. Again you see the huge shift

had this been a snowstorm....the chat room would of been a disaster zone of disappointment.

So what is the bottom line for this weekend?

1) Cold front moves through Friday night with some showers likely

2) Saturday quickly dries out and stays dry

3) Sunday is the big question mark but the ensembles seem to have taken us from a big storm to a glancing blow. If you were hoping for a non washout on Sunday--today was a good day.

We will keep tracking this.

Just for kicks--here is the latest 18z Euro that just came out for Sunday. Where did the storm go lol? That looks like a sunny day! Crazy. Hopefully we can lock in tomorrow.

here was the Euro at 00z last night--the first hint of the south shift--