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Jays Wintry Mix - November Rain. My November 1st look
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Jays Wintry Mix - Halloween first forecast
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Often, November is a good precursor to December but i am seeing mixed signals for November so lets see if we can get a handle of things
First of all, Halloween still looks good. I am not seeing any model/ensemble that gives us precip on Halloween. If you look at this map...even just showing the wettest models and ignoring 90% of the drier models still gives us a dry Halloween
However Sunday November 1st...I am seeing some signs that that there could be a threat of precip. Looking at the Wettest models...it still isn't a wet signal but there there could be something there perhaps in the late afternoon or evening but overall--the signal for next Sunday is mostly dry but not a 100% lock like Saturday.
my gut feeling is we hold off on meaningful precip till after Next weekend.
Temps:
The temps for Halloween are still forecast to be above normal but the 00z european and some of the ensemble members do show the potential to be cooler although its in the minority. The 00z euro had a high of 58 but the ensembles were around 65. So we will keep tracking that.
November
November is going to start with a pattern that just wont work in the winter. Big Positive NAO (blue in Greenland) and fast jet stream with a trough off the west coast and a ridge to the east
this spells a warm start to November most likely
but we also start seeing a more stormy pattern. All that brown(dry) in the Eastern US is replaced by green gradually.
I would expect wetter than normal conditions as we progress through November after our stunning dry window closes just after Halloween. Very on par with an El Nino
Mixed Signals:
there are some signs that we could see a cooler window for the 2nd half of November heading into Thanksgiving. The first half of November in the long range looks mild but the pattern would seem to improve(if you like colder) in the 2nd half. All this of course is speculation but thats what I am seeing now. I doubt we will see snow in November but the pattern could be more interesting by then at least for a window of time
This Weekend
The only thing i would mention about this weekend that is interesting is the morning temps
Mid to upper 30s Saturday and Sunday. Pretty similar to last week. By the time this below normal stretch ends...it will be about 8-10 days of it. The exact kind of window we need in the winter with a robust storm track
Often, November is a good precursor to December but i am seeing mixed signals for November so lets see if we can get a handle of things
First of all, Halloween still looks good. I am not seeing any model/ensemble that gives us precip on Halloween. If you look at this map...even just showing the wettest models and ignoring 90% of the drier models still gives us a dry Halloween
However Sunday November 1st...I am seeing some signs that that there could be a threat of precip. Looking at the Wettest models...it still isn't a wet signal but there there could be something there perhaps in the late afternoon or evening but overall--the signal for next Sunday is mostly dry but not a 100% lock like Saturday.
my gut feeling is we hold off on meaningful precip till after Next weekend.
Temps:
The temps for Halloween are still forecast to be above normal but the 00z european and some of the ensemble members do show the potential to be cooler although its in the minority. The 00z euro had a high of 58 but the ensembles were around 65. So we will keep tracking that.
November
November is going to start with a pattern that just wont work in the winter. Big Positive NAO (blue in Greenland) and fast jet stream with a trough off the west coast and a ridge to the east
this spells a warm start to November most likely
but we also start seeing a more stormy pattern. All that brown(dry) in the Eastern US is replaced by green gradually.
I would expect wetter than normal conditions as we progress through November after our stunning dry window closes just after Halloween. Very on par with an El Nino
Mixed Signals:
there are some signs that we could see a cooler window for the 2nd half of November heading into Thanksgiving. The first half of November in the long range looks mild but the pattern would seem to improve(if you like colder) in the 2nd half. All this of course is speculation but thats what I am seeing now. I doubt we will see snow in November but the pattern could be more interesting by then at least for a window of time
This Weekend
The only thing i would mention about this weekend that is interesting is the morning temps
Mid to upper 30s Saturday and Sunday. Pretty similar to last week. By the time this below normal stretch ends...it will be about 8-10 days of it. The exact kind of window we need in the winter with a robust storm track
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