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Jays Wintry Mix - This is why you use ensembles and other crazy happenings
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Jays Wintry Mix - November Rain. My November 1st look
About This Title
The 12z European operational model showed what looks like a pretty cold Halloween
It literally shows a massive cold front about to knock the warm air out of the east
but its just one run of the European at 360 hours. That's why there is ensembles. The ensembles see it much different. Look at the map. Same date
Looking under the hood at the individual Members, there is some support for that cold though but its in the minority right now
so based on this and the current pattern i would probably conclude that Halloween would be warm but it also may depend on a timing of a cold front which is too far out to really foreacst. But i just wanted to show you an example of an operational run(What shows up on your weather app) versus the ensembles which is 50 members trying to make sure the main model isnt on crack! But there is enough cold members showing up that we cant rule out a colder Halloween scenario but I will still learn warm as of now
Weekend update
Tomorrow late afternoon or early evening...a decent chance for storms
then some scattered showers overnight but they should clear by daybreak(hopefully). But if you remember a few weeks ago....those showers lingered till noon even though they were suppose to be out by morning. I dont see that happening again but we will keep an eye on it. But i would not be shocked it it lingered till 8am. It should be very light and hardly any accumulation. But once it clears---we should be on a path for a chilly but dry weekend. The clearing will take place from NW to SE
Wind!
Saturday is going to be chilly and windy. Bundle up like its its early Winter. Seriously. Winds 20-30mph!
Rumors of the Perfect Halloween storm?
The 00z and 12z euro both spun up coastal storms from a stalled front. You can see the wildness of this storm simulation as it spun stalled and got pulled back west and eventually dropped snow in New England.
there is some but not much support for this extreme scenario but as always we will watch and update.
Remember to check the chat for live model updates as warranted and other fun discussions
Sidenote: The 18z AI has a similar scenario but instead of being pulled west to New England...it got pulled west towards Virginia beach for next weekend. We will keep an eye on it.
The 12z European operational model showed what looks like a pretty cold Halloween
It literally shows a massive cold front about to knock the warm air out of the east
but its just one run of the European at 360 hours. That's why there is ensembles. The ensembles see it much different. Look at the map. Same date
Looking under the hood at the individual Members, there is some support for that cold though but its in the minority right now
so based on this and the current pattern i would probably conclude that Halloween would be warm but it also may depend on a timing of a cold front which is too far out to really foreacst. But i just wanted to show you an example of an operational run(What shows up on your weather app) versus the ensembles which is 50 members trying to make sure the main model isnt on crack! But there is enough cold members showing up that we cant rule out a colder Halloween scenario but I will still learn warm as of now
Weekend update
Tomorrow late afternoon or early evening...a decent chance for storms
then some scattered showers overnight but they should clear by daybreak(hopefully). But if you remember a few weeks ago....those showers lingered till noon even though they were suppose to be out by morning. I dont see that happening again but we will keep an eye on it. But i would not be shocked it it lingered till 8am. It should be very light and hardly any accumulation. But once it clears---we should be on a path for a chilly but dry weekend. The clearing will take place from NW to SE
Wind!
Saturday is going to be chilly and windy. Bundle up like its its early Winter. Seriously. Winds 20-30mph!
Rumors of the Perfect Halloween storm?
The 00z and 12z euro both spun up coastal storms from a stalled front. You can see the wildness of this storm simulation as it spun stalled and got pulled back west and eventually dropped snow in New England.
there is some but not much support for this extreme scenario but as always we will watch and update.
Remember to check the chat for live model updates as warranted and other fun discussions
Sidenote: The 18z AI has a similar scenario but instead of being pulled west to New England...it got pulled west towards Virginia beach for next weekend. We will keep an eye on it.
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